Southwest Monsoon commences its journey towards India as IMD confirms onset over Nicobar Islands
Southwest Monsoon makes onset over Nicobar, marking the beginning of 4-month-long wet season for the subcontinent.
Good News! The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that the Southwest Monsoon has advanced into certain regions of the South Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, and South Andaman Sea as of today, May 19, 2024.
This marks the beginning of four-month long rainy season in the Indian subcontinent where it is crucial for agriculture and replenishing water reservoirs.
Early Progress of Southwest Monsoon 2024
The monsoon’s advancement was marked by widespread rainfall over the Nicobar Islands in the past 24 hours, along with favorable wind and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) conditions. The Northern Limit of the Monsoon now passes through the coordinates 5°N/75°E, 6°N/80°E, 7°N/85°E, Nancowry, and 10°N/100°E.
Quantitative Predictions
The IMD’s projections for 2024 indicate that the seasonal rainfall from June to September is likely to be above normal, exceeding 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, this translates to 106% of the LPA, with a model error margin of ± 5%. The LPA for the monsoon season, based on the period from 1971-2020, is 87 cm.
ALSO READ | Monsoon to make early onset this year, likely to hit Kerala by May 31, above-normal rainfall predicted | IMD
Historical Perspective
Historically, the onset date of the monsoon over Kerala has varied significantly. The earliest recorded onset was on May 11, 1918, and the latest was on June 18, 1972. In recent years, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, 2023, May 29, 2022, June 3, 2021, and June 1, 2020. This year, the IMD expects the monsoon to reach Kerala by May 31, with a model error margin of ± 4 days.
Relief From Draught and Heatwave
The forecast of above-normal monsoonal rainfall is a big relief, especially as large parts of India are currently in the grip of a severe heatwave. Maximum temperatures have reached 48 degrees Celsius, setting new records in several states and causing major health and livelihood challenges. Southern India experienced heatwave episodes as early as April, further stressing the power grids and depleting water resources, leading to drought-like conditions in several regions.
