Monsoon to make early onset this year, likely to hit Kerala by May 31, above-normal rainfall predicted | IMD

According to The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala around May 31 with an error of plus minus four days.

The southwest monsoon is expected to make onset over Kerala around May 31, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) mentioned in a press release on Wednesday.

The southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days; thereafter it advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15.

This year however, according to the IMD’s projections, the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala around May 31, with a model error margin of ± 4 days. This onset date serves as a crucial indicator for the progression of the monsoon across the country, bringing relief from scorching summer temperatures as it advances northward.

The 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

The IMD said that its operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 19 years were proved to be correct with the exception of 2015.

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Another Heat Wave Soon

A fresh spell of heat wave likely to commence over Northwest India from 16th May and East India from 18th May, 2024, IMD said in a briefing.

Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated/some pockets over West Rajasthan during 15th-19th; over Punjab, south Haryana during 16th-19th and north Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar during 17th-19th May, 2024. Severe Heat wave conditions also very likely in isolated/some parts of West Rajasthan during 17th-19th; Punjab, south Haryana on 18th & 19th; East Rajasthan on 19th May, 2024.

Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Gujarat Region during 15th-17th; Konkan on 15th & 16th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 16th & 17th; Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha on 18th & 19th May, 2024.

Hot and humid weather very likely to prevail over Assam & Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Bihar on 15th & 16th May.